What is the industry view?
After 20 years in the affiliate industry, I've observed how dynamic and adaptable the model is. Each year brings predictions about forthcoming industry twists and turns. Following Moonpull's launch year, we considered it vital to examine 2023 while developing our platform.
The past twelve months proved exciting for Moonpull, as reflected in our blog posts. The Moonpull platform launched, demonstrating that the technology addressed a genuine need among networks and publishers, confirmed through our partnership with Awin.
Additional networks and publishers have adopted Moonpull to analyze tracking and consent issues. We're particularly pleased to have been shortlisted for the Performance Marketing Awards and included in a MartechRecord list of technologies to watch in 2023.
What should we expect in 2023
At PI Live in London recently, industry participants discussed 2023 developments. Strong emphasis fell on brand-to-brand partnership expansion, reward and membership publisher evolution, and overlaps between influencer marketing and affiliate channels.
We recently consulted industry friends regarding 2023 outlooks.
Adam Weiss
"2023 will continue to be a year of growth and maturity for the affiliate channel. More publishers will see Affiliate commerce as viable revenue diversification. With expanded distribution, underlying technology must evolve further."
"Attribution-based tracking, reporting, and economic structures exist but require continued development and advertiser adoption as channel management grows more complex."
"As a partnership-predicated channel, we must balance the people driving business and software enabling revenue optimization."
Brook Schaaf
Brook Schaaf's FMTC reported processing 360,571 deals during Black Friday 2022, including 40,668 coupons.
Schaaf predicts 2023 may represent the breakthrough year for seller (shadow) networks. These platforms track marketplace sales, particularly Amazon's. Affiliates send traffic to, for example, Amazon seller pages, earning commissions exceeding marketplace offerings like Amazon Associates.
FMTC provided 2023 insights through their Google partnership. Monitoring marketplaces offers valuable guidance for the coming year.
Lee-Ann Johnstone
Lee-Ann identified four primary trends:
Video Content Growth: TikTok ranks among primary social media rivals. Short-form video will gain popularity, potentially becoming a primary digital marketing format.
The Metaverse: This fully immersive virtual internet representation could revolutionize the digital landscape. Incremental 2023 rollout is expected, with estimates suggesting a $5 trillion global economy addition by 2030.
Micro-Influencers: Rising adoption of content creators with smaller, more engaged followings. Brands access smaller, knowledgeable communities with stronger influencer trust.
Augmented Reality: Clothing and beauty brands pioneered AR technology for virtual try-ons. UK-based Marks & Spencer recently acquired the AR business Thread to accelerate personalization plans.
Read more at AffiliateInsider.
Stephen Brown
One certainty: affiliate tracking complications from advertiser consent legislation compliance will intensify in 2023 and beyond.
Greater awareness will emerge that third-party tracking (typically on network redirects) masks first-party tracking issues. This coincides with recognition that Google's third-party cookie deprecation will highlight this matter in 2024.
Our prediction: more publishers and advertisers will recognize how consent implementations and cookie deprecation interrelate, reducing measured performance of suboptimal tracking, conversation rates, and advertiser program attractiveness.
Overall, we anticipate positive outcomes through increased dialogue among all parties using the affiliate model. Keeping tracking functional will be accepted as a partnership among all players, not solely networks' responsibility.
Christen Evans
Christen highlighted three primary 2023 trends based on LaRue experience and as Performance Marketing Association Chairman:
Performance PR: Including influencer relationships, this will gain momentum as brands correlate brand awareness to revenue. Tracking performance from storytelling through conversions enables data-driven partnership decisions.
Economic Efficiency: Economic volatility prompts brands toward efficient marketing spend and ROAS focus. The affiliate channel historically booms during economic uncertainty. Agencies, networks, and thought leaders can emphasize best practices and affiliate education for brand longevity.
Cookieless Tracking: Continuing dominance with expanded OS developments reinvigorates influencer partnerships and opens omnichannel opportunities. QR codes, branded exclusives, and unique engagement moments enable customer attraction and inspiration.
Privacy marches on
New 2023 privacy laws extend to additional territories and states. Advertisers must address privacy and cookie consent for consumer expectations and strengthening legal requirements:
- US: California extends CPRA regulations
- Virginia: Introduces VCDPA
- Multiple States: Colorado, Utah, and Connecticut strengthen privacy laws
- Australia: Privacy Legislation Amendment Bill takes effect
- Indonesia: Implements new data protection laws
- Brazil: National Data Protection Authority issued cookie and tracker guidance
These regulations will increase cookie and tracking consent messaging on ecommerce websites. Moonpull analysis indicates approximately 9% sales loss through cookie declination, representing 30% increase over nine months -- a continuing trend.
Moonpull experienced strong uptake among affiliate marketing professionals seeking clarity on cookie consent and tracking effectiveness. Conversations continue with others where Moonpull's audit value demonstrates tangible benefits.
About the contributors
Adam Weiss: 20+ year industry background, including 14 years at Rakuten (formerly Linkshare). Currently provides strategic consulting through Weiss Digital Consulting.
Brook Schaaf: Founder and CEO of FMTC, aggregating affiliate content for affiliates and bloggers. Previously founded Schaaf-Partnercentric for 11 years before 2017 sale.
Lee-Ann Johnstone: Founder of AffiliateInsider, running AmplifySummit and ElevateSummit. 20+ years experience across retail, finance, and iGaming sectors. Seasoned speaker and podcast host.
Steven Brown: Moonpull founder and CEO with extensive affiliate industry involvement. Originally founded buy.at affiliate network (acquired by AOL 2008, later Awin). Subsequently involved in SEO and affiliate publishing.
Christen Evans: Currently Director of Affiliate Marketing at LaRue PR and Performance Marketing Association President. 15+ years content creation and affiliate management experience. Voted 2017 Affiliate Summit Advocate of the Year.